The Gospel according to Gore

 

The Gospel according to Gore

by Mary Ellen Tiffany GilderYou may have missed it, but April 22nd was National Day of Hope, Prayer and Reflection about Global Warming – presumably not by the edict of the current administration. In the political world Bush is becoming more and more isolated in his stance on this subject. Other public figures are acquiescing one by one. Even Arnold Schwarzenegger, who once seemed likely to be an unmovable bastion of big-business conservatism, has been converted and is on the cover of Newsweek, twirling a fragile and endangered world on his finger and announcing draconian measures to limit carbon emissions in California. He’s a believer.

Global warming has galvanized the developed world. Liberals sound the warning, Conservatives respond with gradually mounting enthusiasm. Clergy fall to their knees in prayer and repentance. Atheists find new purpose and a moral lodestone. Americans slap concerned bumper stickers on their SUVs and flock to “An Inconvenient Truth”. Hollywood swoons and bestows on Gore’s slideshow two Academy Awards. The scientific community churns out technical paper after paper in the journals reporting the mounting evidence.

Or do they?

Gore assures us of it, stating that there is no controversy. He refers to the multitudes of the world’s top scientists voicing unmitigated concern through the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. He cites a study of a random sample of 928 articles on global warming, none of which were found to express doubt. There is a consensus.

However, Michael Crichton (best known for his novels but also a graduate of Harvard Medical School and a former postdoctoral fellow at the Salk Institute for Biological Studies) warned his audience of the dangers of “consensus science” in a 2003 speech,

“Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had. “Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. “Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.”

Think of Semmelweiss and puerperal fever. Think of Goldberger and pellagra. Even Gore’s favorite example of continental drift highlights the folly of the scientific consensus that mocked Alfred Wegener’s theory of Pangaea for half a century.

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Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)

• The Great Global Warming Swindle (Complete)
• They call this a consensus?
• Al Gore’s Live Earth: Has Global Warming Hysteria ‘Jumped the Shark’
• Consensus, science and “consensus science”